September 2026 | A Cautious Fall Market as Toronto Shows Greater Resilience
September brought a subdued start to Toronto’s fall real estate market, as economic uncertainty continued to temper buyer confidence. Although average selling prices rose from August, sales across the Greater Toronto Area(GTA) remained essentially flat, and benchmark values continued to soften. The City of Toronto showed more resilience in sales activity than the broader region, reinforcing the importance of looking beyond GTA headlines to understand individual neighbourhoods and property types.
Across the GTA, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 5,040 homes sold in September, down 9% from a year earlier. The average selling price was $1,006,409, an increase of 1.3% from August but 5.1% below September 2025. The MLS Home Price Index benchmark, which tracks the value of a typical home while accounting for differences in the properties sold, declined 0.9% month over month and 4.7% year over year to $917,600. This divergence suggests that the higher average reflected a change in the mix of sales rather than a broad recovery in home values.
“Housing is one of the biggest issues on voters’ minds, and the upcoming municipal election will help shape housing policy across the GTA and Simcoe County for the next four years. The decisions our next mayors and councillors make on affordability, housing supply and the costs associated with buying a home can also influence buyer demand and confidence in the market,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Daniel Steinfeld.
Within the City of Toronto, sales totalled 1,937, up 9.6% from August and down 6.1% year over year, a smaller annual decline than the GTA’s 9%. The city’s average selling price reached $1,034,320, rising 5.6% from August while remaining 5.1% below last September. Toronto’s benchmark price fell 1.1% month over month to $908,200, down 4% annually compared with the GTA’s 4.7% decline. Together, these figures show a city market with a stronger seasonal pickup in transactions, but continuing pressure on underlying values.
The supply picture also requires context. GTA new listings totalled 16,500, up 36.6% from August but down 14.4% from a year earlier. There were 26,131 active listings at month-end, 9.3% fewer than last September. Despite that annual reduction, available inventory represented approximately 5.2 months of supply at September’s sales pace, leaving buyers considerable choice. In Toronto, new listings rose 55.3% from August to 6,521, outpacing the increase in sales. The city had 9,865 active listings, equivalent to approximately 5.1 months of supply.
“We know there is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA, with many households fully intending on purchasing a home in the months ahead. These would-be homebuyers want to take advantage of today’s more affordable housing market, but they need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.
Condominium apartments remained a softer segment. Across the GTA, the average condo apartment price was $605,257, down 7.6% year over year. Within Toronto, the average was $640,248, compared with $533,654 in the surrounding 905 region. GTA detached homes averaged $1,292,016, down 4.9% annually, while semi-detached prices were essentially unchanged at $1,015,202. These differences underline why a region-wide average cannot fully describe the market for a particular home or condominium building.
“Governments must make homeownership more attainable by reducing barriers such as Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax and opposing its expansion across the GTA and Simcoe County,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “With trade uncertainty and tariffs continuing to affect Canada’s economy, maintaining a strong housing sector is critical to supporting consumer confidence, economic growth, and the significant spin-off spending generated by every MLS® transaction,” continued DiMichele.
For sellers, strategic pricing based on recent comparable sales remains essential, supported by thorough preparation and a realistic assessment of competing listings. For buyers, softer conditions offer time to evaluate options and negotiate, although the opportunity varies by location and property. For homeowners considering downsizing, the most useful calculation is the difference between the likely proceeds from their current home and the full cost of their next purchase. As the final quarter unfolds, employment confidence, inflation and borrowing costs will remain central to whether more buyers move forward.